CRESTCon Europe: Predictive Cyber Defence - Early Warning Intelligence

This presentation introduces Early Warning Intelligence, a predictive approach that orchestrates cyber defence by anticipating threats before they materialize. Incorporating structured analytical techniques, we will explore distinct methodologies for constructing an EWI system: profile-driven, correlation-guided and hypothesis-driven research approaches, drawing from practical examples and previously published works.

This presentation will not only dissect these methods but will also argue for the integration of temporary countermeasures—a concept introduced to adjust cyber defence dynamically in response to elevated threat levels. Examples include tweaking rate limits and bot scores, configuring increased resources, and temporarily disabling features to mitigate impact, showcasing a shift from static to adaptive security postures.